UNC/Duke Full Circle

ESPN has been making a lot of recent noise about its "full circle" coverage of the North Carolina at Duke on Saturday. I think this is excellent for the sport of college basketball for one game to get so much coverage. One reason is, this is the most highly anticipated regular season game, in any sport. One may argue Red Sox/Yankees games are more anticipated, but come on, they play 20 times, which diminishes each games importance and dilutes the rivalry in general. Carolina and Duke each take their best shots of the year from each other. Some of the most thrilling finishes ever have come from this game and they are always close. What is truly remarkable is that no matter the state of the teams, a win in this game makes the season, and they play like it. I have seen games when UNC or Duke have no business playing at the level they do for those forty minutes, but they do. The spirit of college basketball is embodied on that 9 mile stretch of Tobacco Road, and players leave it all on the floor for it.

Oklahoma and other odd things...

Oklahoma is undefeated in their last 4 games. They have won by a total of 4 points.
They beat Iowa State 83-82, Texas Tech 71-70, Kansas State 71-70, and last night they beast Oklahoma State 67-66 because an OK State player attempted to draw a charge with less than a second left, at half court! This I blame on coaching, in the huddle before the play Sean Sutton should have told his team 2 things, get a hand in the face of the shooter and don't foul, don't foul, don't foul! That dashed any hopes of NCAA dreams that rose from the dead when they upset Texas. Sorry cowboys, should have listened to the coach.

About 7 days ago I said that Michigan State's resume did not warrant a lock in the NCAAs or Final Four talk. Now the Spartans have lost 4 of their last 5, are 7-7 in the Big 10 and have nine losses overall. Not to toot my own horn but... They have home games remaining against Wisconsin and Illinois. Lose those two games, and Izzo is looking at a 7-9 record in conference, and 11 losses overall. NCAA selection committee, please take notice.

Where Did We Go Wrong?

Every major conference has one, the enigma, the team that is good on paper but bad on the court. The disappointment. Lets analyze the biggest blunders in the ACC and Big East.

1. Wake Forest 14-14 (2-12) (ACC): Chris Paul is averaging 16 points, 8 assists, and 5 boards per game, for the Hornets. That is what is wrong with the Deacons, they lost their Identity. It has to be that because it certainly is not a lack of talent. Justin Gray and Eric Williams are both big time talents and Trent Strickland is another senior who can knock down big time shots. So where did they go wrong? I think it all started when Bob Huggins was fired. This opened the UC job and native Skip Prosser was topping a short list of coaches. This shouldn't have deterred a senior laden team that won't be around to see him leave anyway, but it did. They lost their leadership and confidence early in the ACC and never got it back, they went away from Eric Williams and went exclusively to watching Gray take shot after shot. The offense became docile and the team stopped moving without the ball. Normally this team is written off, but this year, if Duke can get knocked out, the ACC tournament is wide open. NCAA odds 80:1

2. Louisville 17-10 (5-9) (Big East): The Cardinals started the year with high hopes. Pitino's club is coming off a Final Four and has all the pieces to go again. But lingering injuries to Dean hampered the Cardinals early and they never regained championship form. But you cant blame disappointment on injuries, at least not to me. The reason they have tanked in the Big East is because they played no one before the conference season. Evidence of this is a dismal Non Conference SOS of 263. They played the likes of Prarie View A&M, Tennessee Martin, and Farleigh Dickinson. This team was the least prepared for the strongest conference in the land. They have also found a way to lose 6 games by 8 points or less. Saving Grace: The Big East is so strong that double digit losses is not a death sentence. They have a must win game against the Golden Eagles this week and a shot a UConn left. NCAA odds 10:1

Beware of The Big Ten In Your Office Pools

Let me preface this by saying that Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan State, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin will all be in the field of 65.

That said, the Big Ten is not good! Anyone reading this should look for a few good first round upset picks against this motley crew. Michigan State may be the biggest disappointment of the season and really can't beat anyone in the Top 25. Illinois is better than they were projected, but still have serious weakness at every position around Dee and James. Michigan is depleted and Horton is their only true threat to score from the perimeter. Wisconsin is too streaky for march but at least have a few pieces in Tucker, Taylor, and Butch. Iowa is just not talented enough, though they have a lot of grit. The hawkeyes have heart, but it may not make up for a slow shooting night in March. Ohio State, the saving grace of Little 10, has four players averaging over ten points per game and six over eight ppg. They have good guard play and a monster down low in Terence Dials averaging 18 and 8. Ohio State is also senior laden, with only one underclassman playing a staring role. One could look at this as good teams beating each other up, I think it is mediocre, inconsistent teams. Look for the Buckeyes to make a good run in March, other than OSU, stay away from this group in your office pool.

This was NC State's night. Bad Night. Also Tennessee shocked me, thanks for adding insult to injury.

Hump Day Hoops

Tonight is good for basketball! February 22nd could will be quickly forgotten in the minds of basketball fans, but not by the Selection committee. Here is the run down:
Ohio State at Michigan State
UNC at NC State
Tennessee at Florida
Duke at Georgia Tech*

The first three games are huge for all six teams. They are all solid to make the field of 65, but each game involves teams that will most likely be separated by one seed come selection Sunday. These games probably, check that will, pick those seeds. All six of these teams should run the table, and this is the game that will stick out in the committee's mind. So who is going to win?

NC State by 6 over UNC: UNC wins neutral game in this series, but lucky for the Pack, it is in Raleigh.

Ohio State over Michigan State by 5: Michigan State remains suspect.

Florida over UT by 2: Tennessee's field goal.....wide right, GATORS WIN! Oops, wrong sport.... Vols can't match up with Noah.

Duke over GT by 15: This game gets an asterisk because I give the Ramblin Wreck no shot here, but please surprise me, salvage your season, and don't let the Dukies have a zero in the loss column any more.

One Through Four Seeds Are...

So who deserves to be in the top 4 seeds, who have protected home court? Here's who I think:
1a. Duke
1b. Uconn
3c. Memphis
4d. Villanova

2a. Texas
2b. Gonzaga
2c. Pittsburgh
2d. Ohio State

3a. Tennessee
3b. NC State
3c. Florida
3d. Kansas

4a. LSU
4b. Michigan State
4c. George Washington
4d. Iowa

Obviously this will change with so many of these teams being separated by so little in the 2-4 seeds. In my opinion only Uconn and Duke are locks to be 1's. Teams that could take a hit soon are NC State with games against UNC and BC this week, Texas in a huge game for the Big 12 against Kansas, and all the Big Ten teams who basically play a round robin the rest of the way.

Attention NCAA Selection committee

Do Not, I repeat, Do not give Texas a number one seed. They are very inconsistent and do not deserve a one seed ahead of Memphis or Villanova even though they beat these teams. Texas still is one of few teams that has a shot at the Championship, but they also are one of those high seeds that won't surprise me if they don't make it past the first weekend.

The Missouri Valley Conference does not deserve 5 bids. They are still a mid major conference, and it will be a shame if the 5th bid goes to them instead of the ACC or SEC. I wager to say that the top 8 teams in those two conferences are better than anyone besides Northern Iowa.

Stick a Fork In 'Em...

These are teams I think were in 2 weeks ago and are done now. Where were you on February 1st?
1. Miami (FL)- February 4th, the hurricanes had just come off a beating of Georgia Tech and were sitting pretty with eight losses. Eight tough losses. All they needed was one win out of their next 3 and they were still in. No luck, losing to NCSU, UNC, and BC hurts bad. -Saving Grace- One more shot at Duke.
2. Indiana- Entering their game with Uconn, the hoosiers were 13-5 and a virtual lock for the NCAAs. They were playing their way into a top 3 seed. Davis' team has now fallen off the map, and Mike is now a lame duck as he will leave at the end of the season. 4 letters has become 3, NIT.
3. Xavier- Entering the month they had only 4 losses and were firmly in. Okay we have to go back a little further to when they fell apart. Against Cincy, a game they won, their shooting woes began. I don't have the numbers but 3 pointers have to be down 15-20%. Since the Cincy game they have gone 3-5 with bad losses against La Salle and twice to SLU.

Waiting in the weeds- MICHIGAN STATE
ESPN.com is in love with Izzo and Co. Why? They are soft, flashy, and not that good! They got handled by Big 10 door mat Minnesota and leader Iowa. They could lose every game left this season against quality Big 10 teams. I'm not writing them off now, but I might soon.
Michigan, OSU, Illinois, and Wisconsin are at home though, lucky. Izzo should be thanking the schedule makers.

Thank Goodness

Thank goodness that there was an upset tonight. It was important too. Wisconsin beat Ohio State. Thank you for stepping forward and getting it in gear to be the 5th team in from the Big Ten. Michigan can still get in as a 6th team but Wisconsin really put a stamp on the 5th spot with their top three position in the conference and their big win tonight!

Also, my school, NC State won big for the first time in 6 games, beating FSU by 22. This is a huge win for them. They are now a lock for the tournament. No matter the rest of the season. They now have 20 wins and will finish above .500 in the ACC.

Two For Tuesday

Oh Mountaineers what am I to think, beat Seton Hall early by 41, lose tonight. Are they getting worse, or is it a mid season slump? I don't know. I see signs that they are not playing cohesively or i see that in their two losses they shot poorly. Give me some time to think. Michigan State also slipped further from Big 10 supremacy. Iowa is really pushing for a top 3 draft pick, better hope Alford doesn't head back to Bloomington, where he is a god, at the end of the year.

JJ Redick set the all time made 3 point shot record, congratulations, JJ is in the top 3 players I've seen play 4 years of college basketball.

N-O-V-A!

Villanova pulled in a huge victory tonight! Not only making a huge push for a 1 seed but really showing me, and the rest of the doubters, something. I thought that the inside strength and all around greatness of Gay and Co. would have dominated the game, not so. They were stifled by the Cats half court trap and all around pressure defense. The 4 guards, Nardi, Ray, Foye, and Lowery, also have exceptional ability to control their bodies in order to put themselves between the trees of Josh Boone and Hilton Armstrong and the ball. Will Sheridan was also a huge surprise with his mid range game, coming up with 2 huge 17 footers from the corner to put Nova up for good. So yes, to all the doubters, myself included, four guards, and Philly heart can beat anyone.

Side Note- In a losing effort, Rudy Gay was excellent, Shooting 8 for 13 from the field and 3 for 4 in trifectas. Rudy really needed to capitalize on two free throws with a minute and half left that would have made it a one possession game, he missed.

Strange Feeling

Here are my feelings on Monday, February 13th. UNC is preparing to make a run in March. Just a hunch. They may not have enough to beat the elite teams in the country, but they do have enough athletes and a proven freshman star in Tyler Hansborough. My bracket may have UNC into the elite eight. Speaking of youngsters on the rise, here comes Kansas. Bill Self has his kids streaking and if Texas losses don't be surprised if they steal the Big 12. What is the similarities between the teams. Oh yeah, coaching. College basketball is the sport a coach can really effect the game. Roy and Bill are two of the best at getting the most out of athletes.

Miami Out, FSU In

Tonight North Carolina handled Miami handing them their ninth loss on the season. Along with erasing any doubt of UNC not being an NCAA team, Miami has given way to another sunshine state team to steal the fifth bid from the ACC. Florida State beat UMass tonight, which was not a big win, giving them a solid 15-6 record and are also .500 in the ACC. 4 of FSU's losses come at the hands of ranked teams. If FSU wins the games it should (Virginia, Maryland, @Va. Tech) and losses to Duke, NC State, and @Miami, it should find itself at 18-9, 8-8 in the ACC and in the clear for the NCAA's. If they don't beat the Terps, that will be their most costly loss because that is their real competition at this point in the season.

Illini Out, WV/Gtown HUGE!

Next week I will tell you who still has a shot to be a number one seed. Illinois was in the running, until their whooping at the hands of the Ohio State Buckeyes, who drastically increased their stock for seeding. Another little tidbit from Sunday Georgetown vs. West Virginia may determine one of the two seeds to come out of the Big East, or at least, who wont be.

My School

NC State really really really hurt themselves today with a terrible loss to one of the worst teams in the ACC, Georgia Tech. They were making a strong push for a 2 or 3 seed and now really will have to win out to have a shot at that. My complaints, I don't like to not foul with 45 seconds left, it really forces you to have to make the first shot you take. Also, not many good free throw shooters play for GT and they are mostly young, both bode well for the pack if put on the line. I also didn't like our defense off the screen. Herb should have gotten on them to help out when the big man makes the perimeter screen. I also saw 6 or 7 dunk/layups from the screener curling back towards the goal. NC State must work on defensive help if they hope to make a run in March, this is also not a 1 game aberration either, poor perimeter defense has hurt them since the Seton Hall debacle. Oh yeah, Gavin Grant has to be more aware and at least get a shot off with 3 seconds to go, all around F- for the pack.

Saturday Signs

Why is it that my number 5 team can not win a game as soon as I put them on? West Virginia was first and now the Spartans get thumped by Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are having a down year, and this will be a terrible loss come seeding time and really hurts your chances within the Big Ten. In other Big Ten news, the two teams I said had to have wins this weekend, lost. Michigan really needed to beat to bottom of the conference, instead they were handled by a horrible Purdue club. Indiana also hurt itself with a loss to a much better Iowa team, but the fact the Mike Davis didn't coach because of the Flu gives them a pass in this 3 point game. Wisconsin is currently beating Penn State but if they lose the Big Ten will really be hurting for bids.

In the ACC, Duke took one of their last tests before sweeping the conference schedule with an eight point victory at Comcast today. The only legitimate loss I see remaining is a rematch with FSU in Tallahassee.

UCLA has once again proven to be a paper tiger. UCLA has has shots at West Virginia, Memphis, and two shots at Washington, winning none. This loss is actually a much bigger win for the Huskies who really needed another signature win in order to make a strong statement to the selection committee.

Memphis also survived a scare against the Thundering Herd of Marshall. They won 91-81 in a game which a loss would have really hurt the case for a number one seed because of the weakness of a C-USA schedule.

Who Is #5

West Virgina is temporarly replaced by.....drum roll..... Michigan State. This is the obvious choice, but I hate to agree with the boys at ESPN.

Oh and the last undefeated went down last night by 3 to Maryland. Good run UNC, should stay #1.

Nightly Notes

Oh West Virgina, after I hype you as a TOP 5 TEAM you go and lose to Pitt? I know the Big East is good but save those losses for UConn and Villanova.
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Florida State got a must win against the Ramblin' Wreck, and they litteraly are, 80-79 in a very poorly played game. None the less, FSU stays in contention to be the 5th team out of the very down ACC.
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Yay Pac 10, thank you to Cal and Washington for coming off the slide to show people you deserve to dance with big wins at home against Stanford and USC respectivly. On the other hand if those 2 won, the losers have now replaced them on the outside looking in...So maybe it still ain't so good on the West Coast, cept the Bruins and Zags.
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Another solid win for the Hoyas. Beating St. John's tonight 64-41 behind Roy Hibbert's 16 points and 8 boards. Georgetown was a bubble team before the Duke win, now they are a top 3 seed. Nice Job JT3. Beat my Mountaineers and I'll have a problem though.
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Fading Dance Dreams (FDD): Arizona, held on for a 1 point win tonight. Syracuse...maybe. Indiana/Wisconsin...1 is not dancing. Michigan...not dead yet, please get it together with 2 wins against bottom Big 10/11 teams.
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Why the ACC suspension doesn't matter

Following Duke's ovetime win in which Florida State's Alexander Johnson was given an unneccesary Technical foul, which was his 5th personal, the entire crew doing the game was suspended. The offeneding refs were Mike Eades, Raymond Natili, and Edward Corbett. They were all suspened for 1 game following the call. There is a problem with this, referees are not employed by one conference or the NCAA. Only the ACC suspened them, they still can referee SEC, Big East, and Big Ten etc. While this will effect them being selected for the NCAA tournament, this really is only for show. Referees are the only part of college basketball who do not ever answer to one source for their mistakes. They need to be either integrated into the NCAA and be employed by them, or work for only one conference. Well done ACC, given the lack of teeth behind anything anyone can do to a ref.

Teams that are playing their way out of the NCAA field tonight:
1. Syracuse- Losers of 6 of their last 7 and 2 crucial losses at home against fellow bubblers, Seton Hall and Rutgers.
2. Colorado- After becoming ranked they have lost their last 2 including a trouncing at the hands of Iowa State.
3. Oklahoma State- Already sitting outside the field, another heartbreaker in Stillwater really closes the door with a tenth loss.
4. Indiana- Plenty of time for Marco and Co. to get things rolling again but the loss of D.J. White has devestated the club, losers of 4 of their last 5.
5. The ACC's 5th Team- Miami, Maryland, and Florida State are all hoping for 1 spot that may fade away to no spot at this rate. Miami's L column has stacked up to 9, Maryland has still not found a stride after losing Chris McCray, and Florida State has still given no indication it will string together the 3 or 4 wins in a row.

Who's In Your Team's Way To Get To Indy?

The Final 4...Where You Want To Be

Everyone is wondering and debating who is going to reach the final 4, and ultimately who will win. This is a very hard thing to do because of the time between now and selection sunday, the road each team will have, and injuries. But as of right now I think there are about 5 teams that are the teams to beat to reach Indianapolis.
1. UConn- With Rudy Gay, Rashad Anderson, Marcus Williams, Josh Boone, Hiton Armstrong, and Denham Brown all averaging over 9 points per game, this is the most talented team in the country, and the only team I feel is a lock for the RCA dome.
2. Duke- After last nights win over arch rival UNC, the dukies prove for the third time in a row they can get it done in the clutch. Oh and the fact that JJ Redick is the best player in the country and The Landlord has the best post up game in America doesn't hurt either.
3. Memphis- Who can argue with a team rivaling UConn in the talent pool. While Memphis is known as a school for 1 year players, they have kept enough of a nucleus around to make a push for the final 4, behind Redick and Morrison, Carney is the 3rd best player in the country, and Memphis is the most athletic team period. The Big East Exodus may hurt the team becuase of such a lack of competition until March, with the exception of UAB.
(If Memphis had every kid stay til they were a senior, their roster would include: Qyntel Woods(Averaging 7.3 ppg for the Knicks), Sean Banks (Who averaged 14.4 ppg with the tigers last season, if he could stay eligable), and Kendrick Perkins (Averaging 4.4 for the Celtics))
4. Texas- My preseason number 1 has really played well in stretches but has also shown that the are not the most mentally tough team. They have a loaded roster with Aldrige and Tucker as their anchors, Ricky Barnes should have his club ready, mentaly and physically, come March.
5. West Virgina- A lot of you may be scratching your heads here. With teams like Villanova, Michigan State, and Illinois not making the list that may be fair. But the boys from Morgantown have got them beat. John Beilein is one of the most underrated coaches in the country, they are assasians from outside with 5 players shooting better than 30 percent (min. 30 attmepted), and Pittsnogle and Gansey are both in the Top 15 players in the country, both averaging over 18 ppg. Their real problem is depth, if Pittsnogle or Gansey is off, which is rare, they only have 2 real bech players in Patrick Beilein and Darris Nichols.

Also Reciving Consideration: Michigan State, Villanova, NC State, Florida, Georgetown, Tennessee