Dead Week Blues

This is my least favorite week of the year. I see no, besides the irrelevant NIT, college basketball, baseball, or football, heck there is no golf, or even auto racing. If you have got the blues like me it leaves a person with a lot of time to ponder about the future, especially because no ACC teams are left to get excited about. So who should be left next year in the NCAA tournament come dead week? I can think of a few.

The University of North Carolina should be headed to Atlanta. They return every significant player besides David Noel, and have the best recruiting class, ever. All-American Tyler Hansbrough should stay for his sophomore campaign to lead a good mix of youth and experience on to the Final Four. They will without a doubt have the most talent and the most expectations.

UCLA should continue to be the west coast force. They have a real talent in James Keefe and they return all of their core players, minus Bozeman and Hollins. Ben Howland should have another run to the Final Four.

Ohio State is already the darling of 2006. OSU has the rare opportunity to replace all their key losses next year. Greg Oden, who could be a freshman POY, will replace Dials, Conley replaces Foster and, stud, Daequan Cook will replace J.J Sullinger. Thad Matta is an excellent coach who did a lot with a little this year and could be headed to Georgia if his freshman come to play.

The Patriots

Think of the greatest accomplishments in the History of sports. Excluding socially significant things like Jackie Robinson and Texas State, Things like the 1972 Miami Dolphins, the 1976 Indiana Hoosiers, or the Mark Spitz 7 Golds and 7 World Records. The 2006 George Mason Patriots NCAA run tops them all. Now before you jump on this and say they haven't won anything yet like those three others, consider the following.

1. The Patriots are one of 5 teams to beat 3 championship programs on their way to the Final 4. Three of the other teams include Holy Cross, San Francisco, and other teams who haven't won since the 50's. George Mason beat 3 of the last 6 champions.

2. They are not the first 11 seed to reach the Final Four, but honestly how can you compare the two? LSU was out of a major conference with major players. The Patriots also live in an age when it is much more unlikely to make a run like this, because it is nearly impossible to beat that many teams with more talent than you, that was not the case for LSU.

3. George Mason has no super star, like an Indiana State who had Larry Bird. They are a team who plays loose, smart, and makes big shots. They do have talent in Skinn and Mason, but not enough to be able to beat the caliber of teams they have. George Mason has played 4 of the best games ever, with excellent passing, timely shooting, and wonderful clock management.

Must See TV Thursday

"I Can Not Believe What I Just Saw!"

Last night's basketball action rivals any day in the history of sports, I haven't seen anything like this since...last year's Elite Eight of Arizona/Illinois and Michigan State/Kentucky games back to back. The fact is that nothing rivals the NCAA tournament on any front. The bang bang shots of Kevin Pittsnogle and Kenneth Paulino were enough to bring anyone to their feet. Who could have forseen the unthinkable comeback of UCLA? The tears flowed from the two best players as they realized their carreers were ending. The night was simply amazing.

Nightly Notes:

1. Tyrus Thomas and Glen "Big Baby" Davis are the most dominant big man combonation since the days of Shaquille O'Neal.

2. JJ Redick did not lose the game for his team. His cold shooting showed the inability of anyone else on that team to step up and play at the level of a championship contender.

3. I have never seen a team turn their intensity up down the stretch like UCLA did last night, credit Ben Howland with a fantastic coaching job and Jordan Farmar for being the leader they needed.

4. Memphis is good, scary good. the overlooked game of the night may have featured the best team. Shawane Williams and Rodney Carney are lottery picks that give nightmare matchup problems for anyone the face.

5. Texas tried to coast through the second half, and it almost got them. They have more talent than anyone, even UConn. The problem is I think that the team knows that. They will not be able to simply play one half and win any longer.

The Sweet Sixteen

It's time to go from 16 to 8. Who got hot for a weekend and who has the pieces to move to Indy? Well I'll tell you who will be left by Saturday.

UConn vs. Washington: Rudy Gay is one of four finalists for the player of the year, but he isn't the best player in this game, that honor would go to Washington's Brandon Roy. Roy will have to take his finalist snub to heart and put up the best game of his career to keep his Huskies in it, and that still won't be enough. Great teams have a tendency to not turn it on until the Sweet Sixteen, because, frankly, they can get by without their A game for the first two rounds. Washington's backcourt is going to have an awful time against Marcus Williams, and everyone knows of UConn's frontcourt duo of Boone and Armstrong. UConn rolls on.

Wichita State vs. George Mason: This Bracket Buster rematch will likely come down to the wire again. These two mid majors have shown their teeth this tournament and are lucky that one of them will be in the Elite Eight. The deciding factor will be inside where Jai Lewis will try to take down his third premiere big man of the tournament in MVC MVP Paul Miller. But if he could handle the likes of Tyler Hansbrough and Paul Davis, than this Paul will be no problem. George Mason squeaks it out.

Duke vs. LSU: The key to this game will not be JJ Redick. He will get his 30 points, he always does. It will also not come down to Big Baby Glen Davis and Tyrus Thomas ability to dominate down low, because they will cancel out JJ Redick. The match-up I am interested in is at the point guard position. I have read up a lot on Darrel Mitchell since his huge three against Texas A&M, and I don't see how Greg Paulus can handle him. Just a gut instinct, LSU upsets.

Texas vs. West Virginia: Texas is the most talented team in the country, though they don't use it like UConn, but when they do, no one can handle them. Texas should be able to physically handle West Virginia, and they had a tune up game against this modified Princeton offense in NC State. The Mountaineers 1-3-1 zone should also be an issue if Texas is able to rebound from its season high 24 turnovers they had in their game against West Virginia in November. Texas stays hot, rolls on.

Villanova vs. Boston College: Talk about a contrast of styles. Villanova has the undisputed best guard combination in the country and one could argue that Boston College controls the post better than anyone. If both teams play at their best, the wildcats win a close one, but if Villanova is a little cold, and Boston College hammers away as usual, the eagles will knock out the second one seed. Boston College barges on to Sunday.

Florida vs. Georgetown: Who is playing their best basketball at this point in the season, not Duke, UConn, or Villanova, its the Gators. Florida rolled in the SEC tournament and really dominated South Alabama and Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Joakim Noah has been the MVP of the NCAAs so far. Cory Brewer and Taurean Green have also poured in big time points. Georgetown's Roy Hibbert has arguably gained the most ground, if he was to enter, in the upcoming draft, but he has to contend with the most tenacious player in America, Joakim Noah. Florida holds on from the free throw line.

Memphis vs. Bradley: Memphis is too talented, too deep, and has to many athletes on defense for Bradley right? Right, but the Braves are arguably more prepared than the Tigers by playing in the strong MVC as opposed to the C-USA. In the end though, Cinderella falter here and Sommerville is shut down by Rodney Carney, the dream ends.

UCLA vs. Gonzaga: The Zags are finally back to the second weekend after years of faltering. Morrison is the hardest to guard player in the country, JJ is the best. The key here is if JP Batista can find a way to play against Ben Howland's east coast minded athletes at UCLA. UCLA has better players at almost every position and should be able to beat the Zags. The real difference will be at the guard position, where Arron Afflalo and Jordan Farmar should overmatch Derek Raivio and Cespedes. UCLA moves on.

So we have learned? No matter what your front court looks like, it will come down to the guard play in the games.

Mid Major Massacre

Wichita State, Bradley, George Mason, and Gonzaga to a point have all taken the NCAA by storm. While Gonzaga has been a national player for years, they still employ the same strategy as their mid major conference brothers. With just enough depth, just enough inside play, and great guard play they have beaten the likes on UNC, Michigan State, Seton Hall, Tennessee, Kansas, and Pittsburgh. These teams are no more talented than their former teams, but it has to do with the talent of BCS conference teams.
If any of you follow the NBA draft, notice who is projected at the top every year. Dwight Howard, Kwame Brown, Yao Ming, and LeBron James are the last four top draft picks. These big players all skipped college for the riches of the NBA. Dominant big men simply don't stay, or go at all, in college. In NCAA tournaments in the past, the UNCs and Kansas' of the world could simply go inside and physically overpower their first two round opponents if their shots were not falling. There is no longer the plethora of dominant big men in the NCAAs. This has allowed just enough room for mid majors to hang with the big boys when they are not making shots. The key for big boys is now to be deeper, more conditioned, and all around more athletic then small schools. Memphis will now doom Bradley because of their incredibly athletic defense and being a team that goes 10 deep. Wichita State and George Mason will obviously move one into the elite eight, but UConn has the same combination of defense and athleticism as Memphis, as well as big men, and will end their runs.
So mid major sweet sixteen teams may now become the norm rather than exception, but they will still be none left when we get to Indy, and for the most part, BCS conferences will prevail when we get down to the elite eight and beyond.

The Big Ten's Big Problem!

I hope that someone went back in the archives of this blog and read the "Beware of the Big Ten" article I wrote last month before you filled out your brackets. The Big Ten has pulled off an incredible feat for the number one rated RPI conference, a total of zero teams made it to the second weekend. How can this be? It is not because the conference is not wildly overrated, but it may have to do with the traditional Big Ten style of play. Big Ten basketball has a very Midwestern, football conference, attitude. They play very deliberate, slow, basketball. Their offenses perform the best in a home environment against similar style teams.
The conference seems to run into trouble in games that don't involve feeding off emotion from the crowd, or frantically paced games. Iowa, for example, would have never blown their double digit lead at home, because the fans would give them to much of a boost. This is true for many clubs across America, but Big Ten fans are different. They are football fans with nothing to do during to offseason, so they bring their loud, angry, unmatched intensity inside. This is why home court is so much more important to Big Ten teams, and why only traditional basketball schools like Michigan State and Indiana ever perform consistently in the NCAA's. ACC, Big East, and Pac Ten schools are more prepared for the more quiet, controlled crowds of the tournament, in which you have to find your own motivation.
The Big Ten also has trouble when their style is interrupted. This happens to every team to a degree, but the Big Ten is most affected because they all play the same style and are not prepared well for other ones. Tom Izzo remedies this by playing various styles out of conference. The ACC have half court, Princeton, and running teams. The same can be said of the SEC, Pac-10, and Big East. The Big Ten must expand its offensive prowess beyond the half court set.
So that's it, that is why you do not pick the Big 10. Points to those of you listening earlier.

If you must know

Sorry to anyone who picked San Diego State, who absolutely choked at the end of the game tonight. I was right on about their 3 star players, but I didn't know about their bad their guard play. The key in the NCAA tournament is great guard play, to keep the tempo in your favor. I almost had the upsets I told you about in SDSU and a valiant Winthrop team. If anyone read until the bottom of my upset post you will see that I gave you the 5-12 upsets, Montana and Texas A&M, who won. I actually edited my bracket and did not have SDSU in the elite eight, so I am still in good shape. This is a very informal post so I would like to know if anyone has had their bracket "busted" yet. Leave a comment if your bracket will soon be better off in the trash can than in your office pool.

Relax

Okay, its time to take a deep breath and relax, whatever you have in your bracket, stick with it. All that can happen now is second guessing, and that never helps. Lets talk selection committee. I do not know why Craig Littlepage and his team of crack basketball minds that put together this interesting field of 65 don't have a press conference after they finish. I would like an explanation on plenty of things, such as Air Force in and Cincinnati out, Tennessee being a 2 seed, and the overall number one having the hardest road to the Final 4. The selection process does not need to be a secret, the committee needs to explain to programs what it is looking for. It also needs to explain whether it simply picks the top 34 at large teams or does it reward teams for different things. If they would explain themselves they could simply say, the bearcats did not have enough quality wins to merit a selection. I would disagree, but would accept it, as it stands now we are left scratching our heads, only guessing at what Littlepage and Co. were doing.

Elite 8

Here is my Elite 8, just in case you were wondering.

Atlanta- LSU vs. Texas
LSU navigates a trap in Iona first round, then handles Syracuse, who's 6 games in 10 days finally catch up to them. The Sweet Sixteen is a match up with Duke. It comes down to Duke's inability to handle Tyrus Thomas and Glen Davis on the inside, JJ Redick puts up 30, but it is not enough as the Blue Devils are dominated on the boards. Texas rolls through NC State and then narrowly squeaks by West Virginia.
Oakland- Memphis vs. SDSU
You heard me San Diego State. They have two pros in their line up and they are experienced, think Kent State 2002. Memphis avoids slips and holds off KU in overtime to reach the ocho.
DC- UConn vs. UNC
Two of the premier programs in the country. This is UConn's year, but UNC wants to repeat with their talented freshman. UConn has faced no real trouble except a scare from a torrid shooting Kentucky team. UNC has had to fight off the talent of Izzo's Spartans and an athletic Seton Hall club.
Minneapolis- BC vs. Florida
These teams have had the hardest road to the regional finals. Boston College had to take Nick Fazekas best shots and beat up Villanova on the boards to reach this point. Craig Smith is looking to take home MVP honors averaging 20 and 10. Florida has been lead by someone new every game. Joakim Noah really did the job against Terence Dials and Ohio State.

Office Pool Upsets

Every year there is that upset that you kick yourself for not picking. These upsets often cause much more pain to one's ego then they do to your final bracket, but if you don't win the pool, you can always brag about this particular pick. Everyone who had Syracuse losing to Tom Brennan's Vermont knows what I mean. These picks are not for the faint of heart and are extreme long shots, remember that all the teams are over matched and can't match up in the athletic department, but you know you want to pick one.
(In no particular order)
1. (14)South Alabama over (3)Florida- This is honestly a gut feeling, because Joakim Noah should dominate this team. This team has no one near Noah, but they do have guard play. The trio is lead by Mario Joiner who is averaging 13.5 points per game, 4 rpg, and 3 apg. Christie and Bennett are also averaging 9 points per game. The Jags score at will, evidence being their 95 point show in their championship game against bubble team Western Kentucky. I think if you are desperate for a really out of the ordinary pick, and if you never trust the gators in the tournament, this is the pick for you.
2. (11)San Diego State over (6)Indiana- I will be picking this one. Brandon Heath and Marcus Slaughter, that name is golden too, are true stars. These two could both hear their names on draft day. Heath is averaging nearly 19 ppg and Slaughter is a 6-9 nightmare with 17 ppg and 11 rpg. Oh and don't forget transfer Mohamed Abukar and his 14 ppg. SDSU may have trouble with Killingsworth inside, like everyone else, but they have the ability to do it. In the words of Nike, Just Pick It.
3. (15)Winthrop over (2)Tennessee- I don't know how the selection committee allowed the Volunteers to slide in at a 2 seed after they lost four of their last six. UNC, Gonzaga, heck even Iowa should be slotted here, but they are not, and that is good for the Eagles. Torrell Martin leads their big three who all average over 13 ppg. They should not win this game, but because the two seed is cold and is an inexperienced NCAA team, they might just pull it off, a la Hampton.

Oh, and don't forget to stab at a 5-12 upset, because it always happens. I say Texas A&M or Montana.

Duke's Dilemma

The moral of tonight's selection show is....you DO NOT want the overall number one seed. Duke has been assigned this dangerous distinction. Excluding the first round, Duke has to face a top 10 team in George Washington, who has an eight seed. They also have dangerous LSU and Syracuse teams before they reach the Sweet Sixteen. They also drew the best 2 seed in Texas. If that is not enough, West Virginia and Big 10 champs Iowa are in the bracket. If Duke had any other bracket I would pencil them through to the Final Four, but they have had an extremely hard time defending teams with legitimate big men. That includes Glen Davis of LSU, Leon Powe, averaging 21 points for Cal, and a top 3 draft pick in LaMarcus Aldridge of Texas. Duke has a shot to make it through because of JJ Redick's phenomenal touch and the emergence of DeMarcus Nelson, but it won't be as easy as UConn, who shouldn't get a game until the Elite Eight.

So Sorry!

I am so sorry to leave my avid readers hanging at this crucial time of the season, but I am going to. I am headed to Greensboro, North Carolina for the ACC Tournament and will be unable to post for the next few days. I will try and find a computer to let you know about that tournament and others as soon as I can! I will be back, for sure, by selection Sunday for a bracket breakdown and analysis.

Who's In/ Who's Out?

Colorado- Out- Colorado has the best record of the major bubble players at 19-8, but with only one win against a ranked team, a loss to fellow Big 12 bubble team Texas A&M, and a non-conference SOS of 273, they really don't look like a tournament team. Colorado also has no finished strong, losing 3 of their last 5 including a blowout loss at Nebraska. Saving Grace: With a presumed win over Baylor and a shot at bubble team Texas A&M could push them in.

Maryland- Out- Gary Williams has already started his bargaining with the committee but it won't help yet. The Terps have 11 losses, they lost to another bubble team in FSU by 12, and most of their losses have been in blowout fashion. They also do not have that marquee win that helps teams like FSU and Texas A&M have, Duke and Texas respectively. Saving Grace: The Terrapins have a SOS of 12 and they will have a shot to get a big time win against BC.

Indiana- In- Why are the Hoosiers in and the Buffs out? They have a SOS of 22 and have resume wins against Michigan State, Illinois, and Ohio State. Indiana was falling apart 2 weeks ago and well on their way to the NIT, but they have righted the ship. It came after coach Mike Davis became a lame duck when he announced he would resign at the end of the season. How can this help a team you ask? It took away all his pressure and his teams worries about the future. The team is looser than they have looked all season and their guard play has become rock steady. IU has the wins, the numbers, and the name necessary to lock up an at large bid.

Where Is The Duke I Knew?

Durham, North Carolina, where gods play basketball. Where have the gods gone? JJ Redick is suddenly mortal, Shelden Williams is putting up numbers but is getting out done by lesser big men, and the supporting cast is unable to do anything on offense? Where oh where have the blue devils gone? I know where.

1. JJ Redick- Coaches have keyed in on how to stop this juggernaut. UNC had Marcus Ginyard almost exclusively chase JJ around all night. Very little focus was put on Ginyard in the offense unless he was wide open. The key to stopping JJ is to have fresh legs and long arms on him at all times to make sure a hand is in his face.
2. Shelden Williams- He has looked great on offense a lot of this year, but only flashes of his defensive abilities have shown up against the ACC's top big men. Cedric Simmons put up a career high 28 points and 9 rebounds and Tyler Hansbrough had 27 and 10. He even gave up 22 to Alexander Johnson of FSU and was out scored by Eric Williams of Wake Forest in both games. I know you are going pro, but don't quit on defense yet, you have a title to win.
3. Supporting Cast- Frankly, this is where Duke suffers the most. JJ Redick has to put up amazing numbers for them to win, because the rest of the team is simply not very good offensively. DeMarcus Nelson could have been that third scoring threat if he had been healthy all season, but he wasn't. Lee Melchionni and Sean Dockery are left to try and score the basketball while the first is a spot up shooter and the later a defense first kind of guy. No wonder JJ takes thirty shots a game, the rest of the team simply has to hard of a time finding the bottom of the basket.

Tomorrow, Tomorrow, I'll Tell Ya Tomorrow...

Tomorrow I will have a full wrap up of the weekend's action, especially on the plight of the nose diving, suddenly one dimensional, Blue Devils.

1.Who's In/Who's Out

2. Doomed Dukies?

3. Streakers Abound

4. Suddenly Sweating Selection Sunday (Michigan State, NC State, Others?)

The Fourth One Seed, Please Stand Up.

I really have no idea who deserves it, I think the Zags have as much as a claim on the 1 seed as Texas or Memphis now, the #2 seeds are deep, but that last 1 seed's region should be happy to see a mediocre one seed.

At Large Bids

These are the teams that, in my opinion, would be at large bids as of right now.
ACC: Duke, Boston College, UNC, NC State, Florida State
Big East: UConn, Villinova, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Syracuse, Cincinnati
Big 10: Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State
Big 12: Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Pac 10: UCLA, Washington, California, Arizona
SEC: Tennessee, Florida, LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky
Atlantic 10: George Washington, Xavier
MVC: Wichita State, Missouri State, Bradley, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
American East: Albany
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: Winthrop
Big West: Pacific
Colonial: UNC-Wilmington, Hofstra
Conference USA: Memphis, UAB
Horizon: Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Ivy League: Penn*
MAAC: Iona
Mid Continent: Oral Roberts
MAC: Kent State
MEAC: Hampton
Mountain West: San Diego State
Northeast: Monmouth
Ohio Valley: Murray State
Patriot League: Bucknell
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Northwestern State
Southwestern: Southern
Sun Belt: South Alabama
WAC: Nevada
WCC: Gonzaga
Seton Hall has is out due to their lack luster loss to Rutgers last night and the fact that Southern Illinois ran through the MVC to take the automatic bid. Sorry SH.

Wednesday Word

Wow. Texas went down and so did the Dukies. Duke lost to a desperate FSU team who had to win to have a legitimate shot at the NCAAs. Florida State looked like a team that was willed to the win by Al Thorton. The game was won on the free throw line, Florida State out scoring Duke by 22 at the stripe. This was a result of aggressive play and putting the burden on Shelden Williams to rack up the fouls and was on the bench when they needed him most. Texas, on the other hand, continues to show their bad side. They are the second most talented team in the country behind Uconn, but they never string streaks together. They can play with anyone one night and also lose to anyone like Texas A&M. P.J Tucker also must be kicking himself because he thought the game clock was the shot clock!?! Are You Kidding Me? He dribbled the clock out and had no idea until the violation was called. Morals: Duke is fine, call it a wake up call. Texas is not, look for them to be out by the Round of 16.